Betting the BCS National Championship – Florida St. vs. Auburn

At the time I’m writing this, Florida State is currently a consensus -10 favorite, and the O/U is at 68. This post will reflect those numbers.

-Florida State Seminoles vs. Auburn Tigers-

Well, here we are. The final chapter of the 2013-14 college football season and the final chapter of the much maligned BCS system. Let’s just take a second and thank whatever deities we believe in that we don’t have to watch Florida State take on Ohio State, after seeing them fall to Clemson…cause we all remember how that FSU-Clemson “showdown” ended up. So yeah, let’s first be thankful that we get a decent matchup here in the final BCS Championship Game.

As for the game itself, Florida State comes in as a heavy favorite, after running the table with a 13-0 record, and more impressively still, winning every game by at least two touchdowns. The ‘Noles also feature Heisman winner Jameis Winston quarterbacking an explosive offense that ranked 14th in passing, 23rd in rushing, and first in scoring. On the other side of the ball, Florida State boasts a vaunted defense loaded with future NFL players. Oh, and FSU ranked first in points against, too. Florida State made everyone they played all year look silly, albeit in the typically-weak ACC.

Meanwhile, Auburn got within view of a crystal football a little more circuitously. The Tigers lost to LSU in September, and needed a few things to break their way to control their destiny. They got those breaks in the form of an insane Hail Mary to beat Georgia, and of course, the Missed Field Goal Return Heard ‘Round the World to down Alabama. While the ‘Noles decimated every opponent by multiple scores, the Tigers had an six victories decided by 8 points or fewer. The Cardiac Cats have been dramatic, but also tout the #1 rush offense, the #9 scoring offense, and a statistically competent defense.

The line for this game opened at FSU -7.5 and the public has continued to pile on the Seminoles, raising it to the -10 where it currently stands. Similarly, the public has bet the opening over/under of 66.5 up to 68. The public believes that Florida State, who has not been tested all year, will have its way with an Auburn defense giving up over 400 yards per game. I agree.

I think Auburn’s vaunted running attack will keep them in the game early, but once Famous Jameis tosses a few TDs and Florida State grabs the lead, I don’t trust Nick Marshall to make enough plays to win against an excellent Florida State defense. On that note, I think this one stays under 68. I simply can’t see Auburn putting up 30+ on a defense like FSU’s, and if I’m making the over bet, I don’t want to count on the Seminoles putting up 40+.

In summation, if Auburn gets the lead early, anything is possible, but I think the ‘Noles have been crushing everyone all year for a reason: they’re really friggin’ good. Auburn may feel a lot like destiny’s darlings and make for a great story, but doesn’t FSU ending the SEC’s championship reign sound just as appealing?

The Picks:

Florida State (-10) OVER Auburn

Total Points UNDER 68

Tags : ACC, Auburn, Auburn Tigers, Auburn University, BCS, BCS National Championship Game, Bets, Florida State, Florida State Seminoles, football, FSU, gambling, Game, Jameis Winston, Matchup, National Championship, Nick Marshall, picks, Preview, SEC, sports, UA, Vizio